Who should I contact in order to add new users to Kairos?Please send an e-mail to info@kairoscommodities.com attached with a list of the requested users – mark the subject “Kairos users”. Who should I contact in order to get further information or address questions about the Fundamental Analysis at Kairos?Please send an e-mail with your requests to info@kairoscommodities.com – mark the subject “Fundamental Analysis”. Who should I contact in order to get further information or address questions about the Technical Analysis at Kairos?Please send an e-mail to Chief Analyst Tom Bundgaard at tb@kairoscommodities.com – mark the subject “Technical Analysis”. Which data sources do Kairos use in their analysis?Kairos use different sources depending on whether it regards prices to the technical analysis or other data regarding the aspects of the fundamental analysis. For all data Kairos use a similar principle, which is always to use sources, who provide the most valid and objective data in order to continuously support a high level of credibility. The sources are always listed on the graphs used in the given analysis, which are the foundations for the conclusions stated. Where should I look for the main information about each commodity?If you only seek a two-minute update on the most essential aspects, then the front page for each commodity is perfect. Here Kairos have provided a conclusion or ”executive summary” that outlines the key aspects. Overall it will take a few minutes to read this summary and look at the graphs. This summary is intended to give you the broad, overall picture of all the major aspects that are driving the price. The first text is a “Recommendation”. This is a kind of conclusion of all the analytics. This section answers the basic question “what course of action should I take?”. The next text section is called “Fundamental Analysis”. This is the analytical tool that shows the forces that drive the price up or down. Regardless of what commodity you are looking at, there are only 4 aspects you need to know about: Supply, Demand, Inventory and Cost-drivers. Any report that you have ever read about commodities deals with these four factors. Every sentence is casting some light upon one of these four aspects. The next text section is called “Technical Analysis”. This is one of the important analytical tools we use that gives important timing signals. This kind of timing signals comes at regular intervals, and so this text has to be updated frequently. The last section is called “Business Cycle analysis”. This is our analysis of how the macro trends of the world economy are developing and how this will affect prices in the long run. Most people are aware that the world macro economy has an impact on everything, including commodity prices. But few people realize how clear and directly this impact can be measured and used for forecasting. The short conclusion of this analysis is written here in the Business Cycle analysis”. Furthermore there are two graphs on the front page showing the movement in price. The small graph at the top is a short term graph that shows around 12-15 months of daily prices. The big graph at the bottom of the screen is a long term graph that shows many years of price data. Overall the conclusions and the graphs bring you the main information for a quick, but still thorough overview on the commodity. How should I understand the Fundamental analysis?The analytical tool “Fundamental Analysis” shows the forces that drive the price up or down. Regardless of what commodity you are looking at, there are only four aspects you need to know about: Supply, Demand, Inventory and Cost-drivers. Any report that you have ever read about commodities deals with these four factors. Every sentence is casting some light upon one of these four aspects. So to give a good overview, we are showing these 4 aspects as a circle with different colours: Red colour - these fundamentals are putting an upward pressure on prices Yellow colour - these fundamentals are having a neutral effect on prices Green colour - these fundamentals are putting a downward pressure on prices The interpretation of this coloured circle is quite simple when all four fundamentals are the same colour. When some colours are green and others red, then we have a more complex situation. This should match the reality of the world which often is complex. The coloured ring is there to give you a simple, graphical symbol that is easy to interpret. Basically all the text and analytics of the Fundamental Analysis is represented in the coloured wheel. One of the useful benefits is that a fundamental change will be reflected by a colour being changed in the wheel. So if one of the 4 aspects change colour, it is quite easy to see, and then you can decide if you want to read further about this particular aspect. If the ring has not changed colour since last time, then there is less need for you to read the “Fundamental analysis” overview. This makes it easy and time-saving for you. Fundamentals tend to change less quickly than the signals in Technical Analysis. The world changes all the time, but not dramatically from week to week. New numbers for the supply/demand balance etc. are usually updated either monthly or quarterly from various international sources. So our text will reflect this, and the fundamentals are being updated every month on our website. We will describe the principles of the Fundamental Analysis more in-depth later. How should I understand the Technical Analysis?The section called “Technical Analysis” is one of the important analytical tools we use that gives important timing signals. The understanding of the technical analysis comes from the perspectives of the graphs. How should I understand the Business Cycle analysis?The section called “Business Cycle analysis” is our analysis of how the macro trends of the world economy are developing and how this will affect prices in the long run. Most people are aware that the world macro economy has an impact on everything, including commodity prices. But few people realize how clear and directly this impact can be measured and used for forecasting. The short conclusion of this analysis is written in the Business Cycle analysis on the front page – click on the link on each commodity to get the full report. | How do I retrieve a new password when lost or forgotten the old one? If the system could not log you in, then it might be caused by the following causes, which take on different solutions: When typing in a wrong password an “Incorrect password page” appears. This provides your with an opportunity to renew your password by typing in your e-mail, which then will e-mail a new auto generated password If this solution does not work, then you should send an email to info@kairoscommodities.com - mark the subject “Log-in information”. Do Kairos have a user manual for a thorough description of the page and its tools?Yes, please go to the user manual site, which will guide you on how to use the Kairos website and the principles behind the Kairos commodity forecasts. How frequently do Kairos update their data and graphs?The Fundamental analysis is updated every month, whereas the Technical Analysis is updated on a weekly basis. The updates concerns both text and data. On the front page you can se when the page was last updated. How can I get a quick overview over the changes in commodities in two seconds?If you just want to have a quick view to see if anything has changed in a specific raw material, then you don’t want to spend time reading a thick report. Just click on the raw material you are interested in and the top of the page will give you the short and long term information in two quick seconds. What is meant by short and long term respectively?“Short term” means anything from a week to 3-4 months. We define the “short term” according to dynamic rules which we explain more in-depth in the "User manual". This timing aspect is very important, so we recommend that you read the user manual on this aspect. But the short and rough guideline is this: Short term: a week to 3-4 months Medium term: 4- 12 months Long term: 1 year to 3 years This does not mean that if you see a "major trend" as a green arrow then you can expect the downtrend to last 1 year from the date you see the arrow. The downtrend starts when the price (the black line) crosses the moving average (the red line) in the big, monthly graph at the bottom of the page. So if this “crossing” happens in February 2008, then the downtrend will usually last at the minimum to February 2009. On average it will last until summer of 2009. A very long downtrend can last until sometime in 2010. How do Kairos provide me with a full in-depth analysis?One of the values of Kairos is that we distill the analysis into a two second view, a two minute view and the full overview. This is done to save you time. Most purchasing professionals do not have time to read many pages of reports every day. However, some times this makes sense. If you have a new colleague that has never bought a particular raw material before, then it would be a good idea for this new colleague to read the full report to gain a good understanding. It is also useful to read the full report before a major negotiation between you and your supplier. At any case the report is available when and if you need it. After choosing your commodity you can click on the “Fundamental Analysis” to gain access to the full report or click on the “Business Cycle analysis” to gain access to the full report of this aspect. Overall this will enhance your knowledge and overview towards the commodities. How should I understand and analyze the graphs?The technical analysis is very much based on the understanding of the graphs which shows the movement in the commodity prices. Overall there are two important graphs to understand – the” small” and the “big” graph. The “small” graph is a short term graph that shows around 10 months of daily prices. You can click on this picture and it will enlarge, so you can see it better (sometimes you need to click on the graph a 2nd time to get the picture adjusted correctly to your particular browser software).
There are several lines in the small graph, which will be described here: The black line is the daily closing price. The orange line is a long term moving average The grey line is a short term moving average Basically what this means is that if the price (black line) moves above the grey line, then the prices are in a short term uptrend. If the price moves below the grey line, then the prices are in a short term downtrend. Similarly, if the price moves above the orange line, then the prices are in a longer term uptrend. This helps to give you a perspective on the future price development. What we mean by short term and long term will be discussed in-depth further on. Please note that the "long term moving average" is shown as a orange line in the small graph but as a red line in the big graph. This is because the calculation of these are different, hence the different colour. For really major trends only the red line in the big graph should be used, as this is the strongest signal. In the graph, beneath the price, there is a short term Relative Strength Index. This is a mathematical formula that we will discuss more in-depth further on. The “big” graph at the bottom of the screen is a long term graph that shows many years of price data. Daily data would be difficult to see with this long perspective, so this graph shows a single price per month. You can click on this picture and it will enlarge, so you can see it better (sometimes you need to click on the graph a 2nd time to get the picture adjusted correctly to your particular browser software). Similar for both the graphs is, that each graph is divided into 4 segments: 1. Price + long term moving average
The top band is the monthly prices together with a long term moving average. Our technical analysis is based on monthly, weekly and daily data, but the main importance is this graph of the long term, monthly prices. If the price (black line) moves above the red line, then the prices are in a long term uptrend. If the price moves below the red line, then the prices are in a long term downtrend. A trend will extend 1-3 years after the crossing. An in-depth explanation of this time range will follow later. 2. MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence
This is a mathematical calculation designed to spot false signals in the long term moving average. 3. ROC = Rate of Change
This is a mathematical calculation designed to give warning signals before a change in trend. 4. RSI = Relative Strength Index
This is a mathematical calculation also designed to give warning signals before a change in trend. The principles behind these mathematical are explained in-depth in the articles posted on Kairos. Here it is only important to note that the graph is just there for a visual reference. The point is not that each buyer should interpret the graph and the mathematical expressions. Whatever these models are showing will be written as clearly as possible in the text “Technical Analysis”. So the graph is only there as a visual reference and you are not required to analyze it. |